From the perspective of criminal psychology, thieves usually follow the "rational choice theory" and "daily activity theory" when choosing the target of the crime, and maximize the success rate by evaluating risks and benefits. The following are the main factors and psychological explanations they may consider： --- **1. Accessibility of goals (theory of Daily activities)** -**Physical proximity**: Tend to choose places with convenient transportation and easy to escape (such as shops near alleys). -**Familiarity**: A familiar environment can reduce anxiety (for example, recidivists often choose the surrounding area of their residence). -**Monitor blind spots**: Instinctively avoid places that are easy to be recorded (such as unsupervised parking lot corners). --- **2. The vulnerability of the victim (lack of guardian)** -**Vulnerable groups**: Targets such as the elderly and lone women will activate the offender's "prey screening" cognitive bias. -**Weak awareness of prevention**: Unlocked car windows and exposed property can trigger psychological cues of the "broken window effect". -**Environmental flow of people**: Follow the "Wegenstein's Law"-choose the time period with the fewest witnesses (such as the afternoon residential area on weekdays). --- **3. Expected return to risk ratio (application of Outlook theory)** -**Property visualization**: Evaluate the value of visible items (such as electronic products seen through windows) through the "Pandora effect". -**Punishment certainty**: Avoid police car patrol routes or community joint defense areas according to the "deterrence theory". -**Time pressure**: Affected by the "Yerkes-Dodson Law", under moderate anxiety, crimes that can be completed within 3-5 minutes will be selected. --- **4. Self-rationalization mechanism (neutralization technology)** - **Moral decoupling**: Treat victims as abstract symbols through "dehumanization cognition" (such as "insurance for the rich will compensate"). -**Lucky mentality**: The "unique self-effect" makes the offender underestimate the probability of being caught ("The police will not work hard for small cases"). -**Social attribution**: Use the "belief in a fair world" to defend yourself ("They deserve to be stolen for showing off their wealth"). ---**Recommendations for crime situation prevention** ***Enhance monitoring visibility**: Install visible cameras (use the "onlooker effect" to deter) ***Implement the CPTED principle**: increase the difficulty of crime through environmental design (such as lighting, low shrubs) •**Community joint defense**: Forming a "neighborhood watch" effect to break the illusion of anonymity of criminals It is worth noting that there are significant differences in cognitive assessment between professional criminals and impulsive offenders: the former rely more on "crime scripts" formed by experience, while the latter are more susceptible to "instant gratification bias" to choose weak protection but low-return goals. New studies have also found that people with "theft addiction" will exhibit neural activation patterns similar to substance dependence, and pathological deviations in the risk assessment mechanism may occur at this time.