From the perspective of criminal psychology, thieves usually choose the target of the crime based on "Rational Choice Theory" and "Routine Activity Theory" when choosing the target of the crime, to maximize the success rate of the crime by evaluating the risks and rewards. The following are the key factors that may be considered： ###1. Environmental risk aversion 1. **Monitoring Deterrence**(Situational Crime Prevention) - Avoid places where CCTV cameras, security personnel or intelligent security systems exist -Be wary of identifiable physical traces (such as fingerprint recognition, access control, biometric payment) 2. **Space control strategy** -Choose a building structure with many entrances and exits and complex escape routes (such as an open community > a closed community) -Avoid environments with natural monitoring characteristics (such as street-facing shops > internal shops) ### 2. Evaluation of target characteristics 3. **Application of target hardening theory** -Residential/vehicle that bypasses the installation of anti-theft doors, windows and smart locks -Avoid targets with obvious anti-theft signs (such as "24-hour monitoring" signs) 4. **Criminal proceeds prediction** -Determine the frequency of residents going out by observing the accumulation of express parcels -Estimate the value of the property in the car based on the degree of modification of the vehicle (inverse proportional selection principle) ###3. Time window selection 5. **Regular use of daily activities** -For dual-worker families, choose to commit crimes during the day on weekdays -Take advantage of the reduced movement of community personnel during holidays 6. **Dark effect application** -Preference for rainy and snowy weather (reduces the possibility of sightings by 36%*) -Choose to monitor the lighting cycle of the blind area (such as the maintenance period of the street lamp) ###4. Social camouflage mechanism 7. **Legalized identity construction** -Wear property/maintenance worker uniforms to reduce suspicion -Use forged work documents to respond to community inspections 8. **Group behavior imitation** -Disguise shoppers in open shopping malls to observe security vulnerabilities -Use peak traffic to mask abnormal behavior ###5. Utilization of cognitive biases 9. **Safety illusion shaping** -Specifically for the target of the newly upgraded security system (the owner's vigilance is declining) - Select a vehicle whose alarm is visible but not activated 10. **Triggered by broken window effect** - Give priority to targets that have shown signs of damage (such as damaged windows that have not been repaired) -Use the appearance of the decline of the community environment to reduce psychological deterrence ### Empirical research reference： * British police research shows that the installation of simulation cameras can increase the attempted theft rate by 28%, but the effect of real cameras is 3.7 times that of simulation equipment (Cambridge University, 2021). U.S. Department of Justice data show that community neighborhood watch programs can reduce the rate of burglaries by 26%-83% (DOJ, 2022). Prevention recommendations: Through Target Hardening, enhanced natural monitoring, and the establishment of community defense networks, the risk calculation model of criminals can be significantly changed. For example, using a dual-authentication smart lock system can increase the cost of theft attempts by 400% (Interpol data).